JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — After four seasons of play from the former first-overall selection, it almost feels like the city of Jacksonville has yet to determine what to make of Trevor Lawrence.
Hopes are high, however, thus far his talent has outpaced his play. Back-to-back seasons littered with injuries certainly haven’t helped Lawrence find his rhythm.
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Even so, Lawrence has left a bit to be desired as the team locked their franchise quarterback up with a five-year, $275 million contract last offseason.
There is endless discussion that could be had regarding Lawrence, but today I wanted to break down his game and see where his strengths and weaknesses lie as a passer.
To do this, I collected his stats from the last two seasons and broke them down into categories: overall, depth, time, pressure, blitz, play-action, and lastly location. His passer rating for each was then computed.
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Overall
For the last two seasons, Lawrence has an overall passer rating of 87.39, slightly below the league average. The average fluctuates between 86.0 and 93.0, depending on the season.
Based on passer rating, Lawrence has been an average to slightly below-average quarterback since the 2023 season. Not great for the Jags’ franchise quarterback. In fairness, that’s been in spite of numerous injuries and an offensive scheme from antiquity.
Depth
Let’s get into it! It’s no secret that Trevor Lawrence’s deep ball is among the NFL’s best, if not the best. To no surprise, of the 13 categories analyzed, Lawrence performed best throwing deep. When targeting 20 yards downfield or more, Lawrence had a passer rating of 102.92.
Compare that to his short and intermediate passer ratings of 84.72 and 75.33 and it’s easy to see why the Jaguars took so many deep shots this past season. It certainly helps with Brian Thomas Jr. at their disposal.
Lawrence has to improve in the short and intermediate areas of the field, as his passer ratings in those areas both ranked 26th of 36 this past season. The introduction of Liam Coen and his offense should do wonders for Lawrence going forward.
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Time
When looking at time to throw, Lawrence did notably better when getting the ball out of his hands quickly. When throwing under 2.5 seconds, Lawrence saw a pass rating of 90.29 compared to just 84.34 when he held onto the ball.
It isn’t a huge difference, however, the Jaguars’ previous offense was heavily predicated on getting the ball out quickly as no team targeted their first read more than the Jacksonville Jaguars in each of the three seasons under Doug Pederson.
Pressure and blitzes
To no surprise, pressure and blitzes matter a lot. When Lawrence was kept clean, he saw a pass rating of 89.65, compared to 79.89 when pressured.
Lawrence is pretty solid under pressure, compared to the rest of the league. He finished 2024 with the 10th-best passer rating under duress. When clean, he finished with an 85.3 rating in 2024, 33rd of 36 quarterbacks. That figure has got to rise going forward.
Facing blitzes, however, has not been Lawrence’s strong suit. He just has not been very good. Among the 13 categories listed, Lawrence’s rating against blitzes was the lowest at just 71.17.
When a standard pass rush is sent his way, his passer rating rose to 92.63. Luckily for Lawrence and the Jaguars, he has been among the NFL’s least blitzed quarterbacks.
Play-action
It’s said a strong run game and play-action are a quarterback’s best friend. It might be the lack of a rushing attack that has caused Trevor Lawrence’s play-action passing to be less effective.
The difference was pretty insignificant.
When using play-action, Lawrence’s 89.14 rating wasn’t all that much higher than his 86.08 rating without. This is an area I expect Coen and company to hammer home this coming season as they renovate the offense.
Location
Lastly, I wanted to see how Lawrence performed inside the pocket versus outside of it. Aside from facing blitzes, this was the most drastic disparity. When inside the pocket, Lawrence had a passer rating of 89.14.
Outside of it, that number plummeted to just 74.44. Lawrence’s legs are certainly an asset as a runner, however, he hasn’t performed well when creating out of structure.
This is an area where other top quarterbacks are excelling. Lawrence, however, hasn’t been able to create in the same ways those other quarterbacks have. This past season, Lawrence completed just 7 of his 29 attempts (24.1%) outside of the pocket.
Summary
There’s far more to look at than just these metrics when reviewing a quarterback’s level of play, though it does provide a general idea of where Lawrence excels and maybe struggles.
Every statistic has to be seen for what it is. Context is key and must not be forgotten. That said, the Jaguars will need better play from Lawrence going forward if they plan to return to the postseason in 2025.
Luckily, they may have found just the staff to point him and the rest of the offense in the right direction under the guidance of Coen and offensive coordinator Grant Udinski
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