JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Few things correlate better to winning in the National Football League than winning the turnover battle. It’s one of the tried and true methods to winning games and coaches can’t seem to talk enough about it. And rightfully so.
Philadelphia’s historic playoff run is evidence enough. The Eagles stole 13 takeaways and gave just the one away in the big game. That +12 turnover differential in the playoffs is a big reason as to why the Eagles outscored opponents 145 to 77, en-route to their Super Bowl victory.
It can’t be understated just how advantageous winning the turnover battle really is. Simply winning the turnover battle sets up to winning about 78% of games. To break it down further, according to a Harvard study, teams with a +1 turnover differential win 69.4% of games, +2 win 82.3% of games, and +3 win 91.4% of possible games.
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Offenses across the league have taken notice as well, posting the lowest turnover rate in NFL history last season. Quarterbacks on average threw just 0.7 interceptions per game. It’s becoming increasingly important too as there are fewer and fewer drives. Scoring efficiency is at an all-time high, despite point totals being lower than in previous seasons.
Teams simply can’t afford turnovers and it shows in their win percentages. Since 2020, just three teams boasting a negative turnover differential have a .500 record or better and just barely. Those three are the Eagles (-1), 49ers (-2), and Dolphins (-1), all just below the threshold.
The correlation is about as strong it gets with as many variables as NFL games consist of. The Bills, for instance, rank second in both win % and turnover differential. It’s a fairly tried and true test. When looking at the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team ranks 30th in win % (0.314) and 31st in turnover differential (-41) over the last half decade.
Turnovers have been something that have bit the Jaguars in the butt, time and time again.
Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL in turnovers since coming into the league (68), in addition to his league-leading 22 lost fumbles in that same time.
It isn’t just an offensive problem though. The Jaguars’ defense was seemingly averse to creating turnovers last season, creating just nine takeaways. Truth be told, there is admittedly some luck involved, however, pressure and tight coverage are proven catalysts. Those happen to be two aspects where the Jaguars ranked quite poorly as well.
If the Jaguars want to get right this season, limiting turnovers and creating takeaways is about as good a way as any. Just getting the turnover margin closer to league average would help them stand a far better chance to compete for the AFC divisional title or a wildcard spot in 2025.
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