Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: Trop storm Oscar forms near SE Bahamas... Nadine moving into Belize

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* There is no named storm aimed at the U.S. this week through this weekend through next week!

* Short-lived “Nadine” is moving into Belize & will dissipate over Mexico Sunday.

* Tropical wave - ‘95-L’ has been upgraded to tropical storm “Oscar” near the SE Bahamas.

* “Mighty Milton” - Buresh Blog - recap of the hurricane including the forecast.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

Neither Nadine or ‘94-L’ will impact Florida or any of the U.S.....

(1) The tropical wave - ‘L-94′ has been consistently producing a “ball” of moderate to strong convection while moving swiftly toward the west into the Southeast Bahamas & was upgraded Sat. morning to tropical storm “Oscar” - the 15th Atlantic storm & officially pushes the Atlantic season one named storm above the average for the entire season .

A Tropical Storm WARNING: Turks and Caicos Islands ... Southeastern Bahamas ... Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm WATCH: Cuba Provence of Camaguey

This system will bring heavy rain & gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas, Northern Hispaniola & Eastern Cuba. The overall environment is not particularly hospitable for tropical development with increasing shear & - especially - overall sinking air across a good part of the Atlantic Basin, but Oscar has been very stubborn in maintaining & even increasing its overall organization probably due to its compact size - a wave that moved off the coast of Africa a week ago - impressive for mid October! The small size could also lead to fairly dramatic changes in intensity this weekend. By Sunday night/Mon., mid & upper level shear sharply increases & should induce weakening not to mention some possible land interaction with Eastern Cuba.

Helping to “protect” the Lower 48 from Oscar is a strong upper level trough that’s driving a strong cold front deep into the Gulf & SW Atlantic.

The ‘HorizonAI’ global model - the First Alert Weather Team is one of the few in the world with access to this model & a model that was pretty solid for Helene & Milton - has been steadily weak with this tropical wave & still only shows a depression or weak tropical storm at most this weekend before dissipating. Most of the global models show ‘94-L’ getting turned abruptly north/northeast after reaching Cuba thanks to a strong cold front & trough over the Western Atlantic. The European model is one of the stronger models but still only indicates a low end tropical storm.

(2) Disturbance ‘95-L’/’Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen’ (PTC 15) was upgraded early Saturday to tropical storm “Nadine” over the Western Caribbean - the 14th named storm of the Atlantic season which in an “average” year occurs on Nov. 19th. Nadine is moving inland over Belize before managing to become much stronger - a good thing considering Nadine seemed to be well on its way to becoming a formidable tropical cyclone. Flooding & mudslides will be a threat for Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras & Guatemala & nearby areas into the weekend.

A Tropical Storm WARNING: Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel

Climavision ‘HorizonAI’ global model is below & has been a good “steady eddy” & compromise between other models this hurricane season. The forecast map below is for Sat., Oct. 19th showing Oscar little more than an open wave in the vicinity of Hispaniola. The model shows Nadine moving inland over Belize.

The ‘Horizon’ does develop a tropical cyclone over the Central Caribbean toward the end of the month - Thu., Oct. 31 - an area strongly favored late in the hurricane season... not to mention a “hot spot” this season.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows “sinking” air (brown lines) across the Atlantic Basin. With sinking air, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air where convection is active. An upward “pulse” over the Atlantic is due again in Nov.

Milton track & winds last week:

Remarkable accuracy by the Nat. Hurricane Center with the very first advisory issued Sat., Oct. 5th for Milton’s landfall 4 1/2 days later:

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

October tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Patty” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: