The first two days of the 2025 NCAA tournament weren't filled with the usual upsets, buzzer-beaters and excitement that we've come to expect from March Madness. The top four seeds went a perfect 16-0 (11-5 against the spread) and favored teams won 25 of the 32 games.
“Without many upsets, bettors found success on moneyline parlays with favorites to start the NCAA tournament,” Michael Ranftle, senior trader at BetMGM, said in a release.
Only two lower-seeded teams (No. 12 Colorado State -1.5 vs. Memphis, No. 11 UNC -1.5 vs. No. 6 Ole Miss) closed as favorites in Round 1 compared to eight such instances last year. And in Round 2, No. 6 Illinois (-2.5 vs. No. 3 Kentucky) was the only lower-seeded team among the 16 games that closed as a betting favorite.
Currently, no lower-seeded teams are favored in the Sweet 16.
But the weekend provided some truly compelling games in the Round of 32 and a few more upsets, as favorites went 11-5 SU but only 7-9 ATS.
In particular, No. 10 Arkansas (+7) winning against No. 2 St. John's on Saturday and No. 8 UConn (+9.5) covering against No. 1 Florida on Sunday were two of the best individual results overall for sportsbooks. No. 4 Maryland (-8) winning 72-71 on a buzzer-beater is one game the sportsbooks certainly wish went No. 12 Colorado State's way.
[March Madness: Ranking Sweet 16 teams from most to least likely to win the national title]
“Florida-UConn has been the game with the biggest handle so far and overall we did great to that game,” Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings, told Yahoo Sports on Monday morning. “Second-biggest handle was Arkansas-St. John’s, which turned out to be our biggest win.”
Arguably, the worst bad beat of the tournament happened in the UConn-Florida game, when the Huskies' Liam McNeeley hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer with UConn down five points to push the game over the total of 150.5 or 151.5 at sportsbooks. The result was bad for multiple sportsbooks Yahoo Sports checked in with, and 87% of the money wagered at BetMGM was on the over. Even in the loss, the Huskies continued to be an ATM for bettors, covering in a record 14th straight NCAA tournament game.
“UConn covering was very good for us,” Chris Andrews, South Point sportsbook director in Las Vegas, noted.
One game on Sunday that hurt the books was No. 2 Michigan State (-7.5) coming all the way back to not only win but also cover the spread in a 71-63 win over No. 10 New Mexico. “That was a real bad one for us,” Andrews lamented on Monday morning. “That was the get-out game for everyone.”
Still, sportsbooks were generally happy with the results and handle from the first two rounds, even if they wished a favorite could’ve lost on Sunday.
“Thursday and Saturday were decent, but Friday was a struggle and [Sunday] was a bad day with all the public teams winning outright,” Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook told Yahoo Sports. “Iowa State and Illinois had no interest from the public and the other six games together with the favorites all winning outright was no good. Colorado State was a brutal beat. Florida had a real chance to lose and didn’t either.”
Andrews agreed that the first three days were generally good results, and Sunday was a day sportsbooks would prefer to forget.
“Thursday was OK, Friday and Saturday good, and Sunday bad,” he said. “With all the chalk that won, I’m surprised we did as well as we did.”
Here is a betting recap of a few notable games and betting moments from the tourney's first two rounds:
A bigger sweat than anticipated
A VIP bettor at Hard Rock Bet in Florida got a little more of a sweat than he anticipated on Thursday afternoon when he placed a large wager on No. 1 Auburn to beat No. 16 Alabama State. The bet was placed a few hours before tip, according to a Hard Rock spokesman, and took some time to verify and get approval for the wager on one of the busiest days of the betting calendar.
The bettor ended up wagering $310,000 on the Auburn moneyline at -20000 odds, which did win $1,550 after Auburn pulled away in an 83-63 win – but the Tigers only led 32-31 with 1:48 remaining in the first half, before closing the half on a 9-0 run to give themselves some breathing room.
One bettor at @HardRockBet in Florida placed a $310,000 wager on No. 1 Auburn ML at -20000 odds before the game vs. No. 16 Alabama State.
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) March 20, 2025
Bet would win just $1,550 👀
Confirmed that the bet is legitimate.
Quite a sweat for that bettor at the moment
Love the Drake
If there was one underdog that public bettors rallied behind in the first round at several national sportsbooks, it was the No. 11 Drake Bulldogs (+6), both to cover and win outright against No. 6 Missouri.
Drake was the most-bet side among all tourney games at ESPN BET and the Drake ML +210 was the most-bet ML at BetMGM among Thursday’s games. The Bulldogs to cover was also the most lopsided game at BetMGM on Thursday, with 77% of bets on Drake to cover.
“Bets on Drake moneyline and to cover +6.5 vs. Missouri represent our largest single-game engagement in Round 1,” Zach Schlouch, BetRivers director of sportsbook operations, told Yahoo Sports on Wednesday.
Drake won outright 67-57.
“We definitely lost a little on that game,” Avello said.
It wasn’t bad for every sportsbook, though, as Andrews noted that Drake winning “was a good result for us.”
Not a High Point for bettors
If there was one underdog that especially let public bettors down in Round 1, it was High Point. The Panthers (+7.5) garnered over 80% of wagers and total dollars to cover against No. 4 Purdue at BetMGM, and the line was pushed down from an opener as high as 10.5 at some books by respected money.
The Boilermakers covered in a 75-63 victory.
Notable wins
$310,000 on Auburn ML -2000 (vs. Alabama State) at Hard Rock
$73,027.43 on Texas Tech ML -1100 (vs. NC-Wilmington) at Caesars
$49,565.20 on Alabama -5.5 (vs. St. Mary’s) at Caesars
$25,980 on North Carolina +7.5 (-433) vs. Ole Miss at Caesars
$22,000 on Duke -12 (vs. Baylor) at Caesars
$20,200 on Michigan State Live ML (-167) vs. New Mexico at BetRivers
$18,000 on Arizona Live ML (-130) vs. Oregon at BetRivers
$18,000 on Duke ML -900 vs. Baylor at Caesars
Notable losses
$135,000 on Illinois ML -135 (vs. Kentucky) at BetMGM
$110,000 on VCU +2.5 (vs. BYU) at BetMGM
$28,500 on Louisville -2.5 (vs. Creighton) at Caesars
$20,300 on BYU -4.5 Live (-240 vs. Wisconsin) at BetRivers
$15,800 on Drake +9.5 (-158 vs. Texas Tech) at Caesars
$15,750 on New Mexico +7.5 (vs. Michigan State) at Caesars
$15,000 on VCU +3 (vs. BYU) at Caesars
Futures look
With a $500,000 wager on Duke to win the national championship at +350 odds at BetMGM out there, along with a $100,000 wager on the Blue Devils at +360 odds at Caesars, sportsbooks have growing liability on Duke to win it all. And it will continue to grow with every game the Blue Devils win.
DraftKings Sportsbook reported on Monday that Duke has the most bets (20%) and handle (21%) of any team to win the title. And it’s the same story at BetMGM, with 13.2% of wagers and a whopping 38.3% of handle thanks to that $500,000 bet. Michigan State (20-1 at BetMGM) is the second-biggest liability, and sportsbooks will also look to avoid a Florida title.
Books were happy to see St. John’s eliminated by Kentucky, as the Johnnies had futures liability from being offered at high prices earlier in the season.
“Getting St. John’s out was huge for us,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City told Yahoo Sports. “Our biggest futures liability by far.”
Tournament betting recap
Favorites: 36-12 SU (26-22 ATS)
Unders: 27-20-1
Outright upsets
Round 1
No. 9 Baylor +1
No. 6 Ole Miss +1.5
No. 9 Creighton +3
No. 11 Drake +5.5
No. 10 Arkansas +5
No. 12 McNeese State +7
No. 10 New Mexico +4.5
Round 2
No. 6 BYU +1.5
No. 3 Kentucky +2.5
No. 5 Michigan +3
No. 6 Ole Miss +5.5
No. 10 Arkansas +7
