‘Uncharted Territory’: Florida Republicans dominating the early vote, experts warn against early predictions

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — More than 6.2 million Floridians have already cast a vote ahead of Tuesday’s election and Republicans are outpacing Democrats both locally and statewide.

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As of noon Thursday, Republican voters in Florida had a vote advantage over Democrats of more than 700,000. In Duval, the GOP led Democrats in total votes cast by more than 9,000.

“We’re in uncharted territory. It’s R +11 right now,” said Evan Power, Chair of the Republican Party of Florida.

Power is feeling optimistic about Republicans’ chances this election, noting back in 2020, Republicans headed into election day behind by more than 125,000 votes and still came away with victories at the top of the ticket.

“If you look at where our voters are coming from, they’re coming from low propensity voters and the Democrats just don’t have an answer for that,” said Power.

Nationally, Republicans do appear to be slightly outperforming in early and mail voting compared to the past two general elections. UF’s early voting tracker shows Republicans making up 36.1 percent of total early and mail ballots cast in the states where party-level data is available. That’s compared to 33.8 percent in 2022 and just 30.5 percent in 2020.

We asked UNF political science professor Dr. Michael Binder whether the trends reflect new voters casting ballots for the first time or seasoned voters simply choosing to cast their ballots in new ways.

“I think it’s probably a little bit of both. It’s the same voters voting a little bit different ways. You know, one, the Republican Party nationally has kind of eased off the idea that maybe voting ahead of time isn’t the worst thing on Earth,” said Binder.

Binder cautioned reading too much into early voting stats, however. For one, party registration of a voter doesn’t necessarily equate to a vote for that party’s candidate. Voting behavior has also changed, especially compared to 2020, when Democrats voted by mail in unprecedented numbers due to the pandemic.

“So, you’re going to see a lower share of Democrats, which may artificially inflate the Republican share of early voting,” said Binder.

Florida Democrats on the other hand are staying optimistic, believing as many as 10 percent of Republicans may cross party lines in this election.

“Not only did we see that in 2023 when we had our mayoral election here in Jacksonville, but we’re also consistently seeing that in other elections across the state,” said Daniel Henry, Chair of the Duval Democratic Party.

Democrats still have a big opportunity coming up to try and cut down on the Republican vote lead. For example, Souls to the Polls is this Sunday, which often turns out a big chunk of the Democratic voting base.

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