Tropical Storm Helene set to strengthen and bring impacts to our area Thursday, into Thursday night

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The First Alert Weather Team continues to track Tropical Storm Helene ahead of its forecasted impacts to Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.

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Here’s what you need to know:

• Tropical Storm Helene remains rather disorganized in the Caribbean on Tuesday afternoon. Still forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday in the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
• A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for our entire viewing area except Columbia County – they are under a Hurricane Watch. Watches mean conditions are possible within 48 hours. Preparations should be completed tomorrow (Wednesday).
• Steady intensification is forecast over the next 12-18 hours, with more rapid intensification possible beyond that into Thursday.
• Forecasts continue to call for a major hurricane to landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key late Thursday. Shifts are possible and impacts will occur far from the landfall point due to the expected large size of the storm.
• A track closer to, or even east of, Cedar Key would heighten our local impacts. A track closer to Apalachicola would lessen them quite dramatically.

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Timeline based on the current forecast:

• Wednesday: Increasing clouds and slowly increasing winds becoming breezy at the beaches by the afternoon. A few showers with gusty winds will be possible in the afternoon/evening.
• Wednesday night/Thursday morning: Cloudy and windy, with rain bands lifting from south to north. These will have the potential to produce isolated tornadoes/waterspouts.
• Mid-day Thursday: Still cloudy and windy, but there could be a sizable break in the rain.
• Thursday afternoon/evening: More rain bands pivot in around the storm. These will contain an even greater risk for tornadoes and water spouts, and some tropical storm-force wind gusts.
• Thursday night: Helene makes landfall with the core of the storm pushing hurricane conditions inland to Columbia County (Lake City) and perhaps as far inland as Waycross in gusts. St. Johns River with values perhaps up to 2-3 feet above normal tide levels. High tide Thursday evening downtown is 6:43 PM, and low tide is Friday at 1:02 AM.
• Friday morning: A few wrap-around gusty downpours, but rapidly improving weather by late morning into the afternoon.
• Minor to moderate flooding will be possible Thursday evening and overnight along the St. Johns River, its tributaries, and coastal areas prone to flooding. Some minor storm surge will be possible along the Northeast Florida coast during a period of onshore winds. A slightly higher surge is possible across the Southeast Georgia coastline.
• So overall, manageable impacts across our metro with sporadic tree and power issues. Minimal flooding threat. Greater impact inland closer to the core of the storm. The magnitude of impacts is still track-dependent.

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