JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — I’ve previously written articles on the death of the NFL’s passing era and how the game is changing before our very eyes. In its place, we have come to see the birth of the NFL’s screen era.
To combat the two-high shells popularized by Vic Fangio and Brandon Staley, teams have opted to try to attack defenses underneath. It’s for this reason that the NFL has seen a dramatic rise in the number of screens over the last decade.
According to Pro Football Focus, the league’s screen rate has risen consistently from just over 7.5% in 2010 to 11.0% this past season. The three highest years recorded have been each of the last three seasons.
With the increase, you’d expect the screen game to be thriving in terms of production, but it has actually fallen league-wide from 5.8 yards per play in 2010 to 4.99 yards in 2024. In 2022, screens hit an all-time low of just 4.65 yards per play. It has climbed back up since, however.
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It begs the question, why are teams running screens? Well, they are generally a safe option with the opportunity for big yards after the catch. The completion rate on screens last season was a whopping 86.0%, much higher than the 62.5% completion rate on non-screens.
They offer the minimal risk of a run-play with, on average, a slightly better reward. It’s a nice happy-medium between run-plays and standard dropbacks, despite the decline in effectiveness.
Some offenses thrived in their use of the screen game, including the Tampa Bay Bucs, led by Liam Coen. Coen’s Bucs placed fourth in the NFL in screen rate (17%) and were one of just three teams to average at least 0.2 EPA/ Play and 6.5 yards per play.
Baker Mayfield actually led the NFL with 695 yards coming off of screens, in addition to his five touchdowns. In Jacksonville, Coen could very well see similar results as both Dyami Brown and Brian Thomas Jr thrive off of screens.
It’s actually something Trevor Lawrence is pretty comfortable with. In 2022, Lawrence finished with the second most yards (533) on screen plays and he finished fourth (412) in 2023. Brian Thomas Jr actually was tied for the eighth most yards in 2024, despite being 17th in screen targets.
Oddly enough, while the NFL as a whole has been transitioning more towards the screen game, the Jaguars shifted away from it under Doug Pederson. In 2022, 14.4% of Lawrence’s dropbacks were screens, which fell to 13.6% in 2023, and then to 10.4% this last season.
This number figures to rise once again with Coen and Grant Udinski at the helm. Screens are on the rise in the NFL, despite their lessening effectiveness. It never hurts to give your quarterback some easy throws to let his receivers create, especially if those receivers are Brown or Thomas Jr.
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