JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Home field advantage has been a wide held belief in sports for decades and often did have quite a bit of merit to it. How advantageous it is varies from sport to sport, but, in general, it was far more desirable than going on the road or even across the country or world.
In the NFL, Vegas usually provides a three point value for home field advantage, though that value placed on home field advantage might now be overstated.
For a long while, home teams had won between 56-58% of games. In that NFL, that extra 6-8% means everything. Since 2020, however, that number now sits at just 53%. It’s seen a steady decline since the 1990s.
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In 1990, NFL defenses allowed 13% less points at home compared to on the road, now that number has been cut nearly in half to 7%. Similarly, NFL offenses used to score 16% more points at home in the 1990s, now just 9.6% more per Pro Football Reference’s data.
Over 25% of teams see no statistical benefit of playing at home, whether they are statistically worse or see no difference at all. Since 2020, only half the league has a winning record on their own turf, according to Pro Football Focus.
That said, it doesn’t seem to have had an effect on Jacksonville yet. The Jaguars certainly don’t have a winning record at home in recent history, however, they have widely outperformed at home compared to on the road.
In the last 10 seasons, the Jaguars boast a home record of 34-48 (.415). It’s nearly double their poor away record of just 21-61 (0.256). Oddly enough, the Jaguars’ offensive production has remained the same, however, the defense has performed much better at home, allowing 21.9 points per game compared to that of 26.1 away.
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Last season, NFELO ranked the Jaguars to have the sixth highest home field advantage in the NFL. Historically, the Jaguars have been much better at home than on the road, including their incredible 28-4 home record between 1996-1999.
In the postseason, these figures go out the window as home teams win far more of their home games than on the road, though postseason seeding plays a major role that has to be factored in. Generally speaking the better team will have a higher seeding and therefore a better chance to win.
Over the last five seasons, home teams are 41-19 (0.683) in the playoffs, infinitely better than the regular season mark. Earning a higher seed still matters… a lot. In the regular season, however, home field advantage doesn’t mean what it used to. Just don’t tell the Jaguars that.
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