JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Third down, especially third and long, are an offense’s nightmare. Consistently putting yourself in those high-stress, make-or-break situations is just no way to live in the NFL and more often than not will result in failure. Very few teams can consistently overcome that level of adversity.
It’s precisely for this reason you hear teams and coaches harp on “staying ahead of the sticks.” A team’s performance on first and second down has a massive influence on how it is that team performs on third down.
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It certainly helps to make things easy on yourself, but just how much does staying ahead of the sticks matter?
First, let’s look at the raw numbers provided by Pro Football Focus. The NFL average conversion rate on third and short (1-2) is 62.8%, third and medium (3-6) is 46.8%, third and long (7-10) is 34.4%, and third and extra long (11+) sits at 16.3%.
Only third and short provides the offense with the upper hand and betting odds to convert. In every other instance, the defense has the advantage. Now, there is something to be said for the increase in fourth-down attempts and fourth-down success; however, third down is still largely the deciding factor in a drive’s success or failure.
When looking at 2024, eight of the top 10 teams in success rate on second down also ranked within the top 10 in success rate on third down. Teams that can run the ball well on early downs and teams who can avoid mistakes (penalties, sacks) put themselves in much more advantageous positions than those who don’t.
Last season, the Jaguars ranked 26th in early down rushing success, often turning to their quarterback to try to move the chains through the air.
Nonetheless, the Jaguars actually had one of the league’s better average distance to gain on third down, largely due to the team’s ability to avoid sacks and penalties rather than early down success.
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Sacks are absolutely damning for offenses. Since 2020, drives without a sack have a 41.2% chance of scoring as opposed to just a 23.3% chance if one or more sacks are taken. Tackles for loss, while not as detrimental, drop the score rate by nearly 10% as well.
The Jaguars have been a horrid third-down team as of late. In 2024, Trevor Lawrence ranked 37th among the top 40 qualifying quarterbacks, and the team converted on just 37.3% of their attempts (22nd). A whopping 40% of Jacksonville drives ended in punts
If the Jaguars and Liam Coen can get the run game going and going early, they can help alleviate the pressure to convert every set of downs through the air. It will no doubt help the Jaguars with their annual struggles at converting those pesky third and shorts as well.
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