JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Now that the NFL schedules have been released, teams can get a much better idea of what sort of season they can expect.
The Jaguars, for instance, stare a brutal opening stretch right in the face as they square off against the Bengals, Texans, Niners, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams, all one right after another.
While only three of those teams made the playoffs last season, few would volunteer to battle it out against Joe Burrow or San Francisco.
The Seahawks have been among the NFL’s most consistent teams, posting just one losing season in the last 13 years.
The back half of the season isn’t nearly as treacherous as the first, however, getting off to a hot start is so important as an NFL team.
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Last season, the Jaguars season quickly derailed following a 0-4 start to the season and never got back onto the tracks.
So that begs the question, how important is a fast start in the NFL? Well, let’s begin with the first four games of the season.
Teams who go 4-0 to start have about an 85% chance of making the playoffs and a 61% chance to win their division.
Teams who start 3-1 have a 67% chance of making the playoffs and 40% chance of winning their division. It’s when teams start .500 or worse where things begin to get a little precarious.
At 2-2, teams have just a 42% chance to make the playoffs and the division title chances plummet to just 22%. Starting the season with a losing record slices those odds in half as a 1-3 record gives teams about a 21% chance to make the playoffs and those who start winless have just 8% odds.
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When looking at the halfway mark, the odds become even slimmer. A 5-4 record at the midway point only nets teams a 54% chance of making the postseason, more or less the flip of a coin.
However, the difference between a 5-4 start and a 4-5 start is colossal. As stated, a 5-4 record provides about a 54% chance, however, those odds plummet to just 28% with just one less win.
That one game difference at the midway point can decide the fate of a season.
Luckily for the Jaguars, despite a tough opening stretch, the team’s schedule is among the NFL’s easiest, in large part thanks to a weak AFC South.
Over the last seven weeks of the season, the Jaguars will play just one team with a winning season last year. Liam Coen has the ability to make a statement in his first season in Jacksonville.
A Monday night showdown against the Chiefs is the highlight, however, just keeping their heads above water until the bye week should keep the Jaguars right in the thick of playoff contention.
Four of the Jags’ final six games are against divisional opponents so the opportunity is there to make up some ground, however, ideally it is what will separate them from the pack.
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