JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The Jaguars’ run game has struggled to bring much support to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in recent years.
While Travis Etienne managed to cross the 1,000-yard threshold in 2023, his yards per attempt plummeted from 5.1 YPA in 2022 to just 3.8.
The last two seasons, the Jaguars’ offense posted back-to-back seasons ranking dead last in yards before contact.
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That said, this statistic doesn’t exactly account for running backs missing holes, bouncing outside unnecessarily, or inviting contact when there maybe shouldn’t be.
Using the NFL’s NextGenStats, it is now possible to differentiate just how much of a team’s rushing success is dependent on the offensive line or the ball-carrier.
‘Rushing Yards’ Over Expected’ is a statistic used to identify how much a ball-carrier is outperforming or underperforming the expectations based on his blocking and other specifications of the given play.
The Jaguars’ running backs, for example, averaged +0.4 yards per attempt over expectation, gaining a season total of +151 yards over the expectation.
This ranked tied for 12th in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, Derek Henry and the Baltimore Ravens led the league, averaging +1.5 yards per attempt over the expected outcome.
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The Dolphins’ running backs, on the other hand, massively underperformed, averaging -0.6 yards per attempt above expectation. When the “Rushing Yards Over Expectation’ is subtracted from the overall yards per attempt, the quality of each team’s offensive line is revealed as it takes the ball-carrier out of the equation.
Reviewing the expected rushing yards per attempt across the NFL brings to light just how good (or bad) a team’s run-bocking really is.
The Jacksonville Jaguars find themselves dead last, despite finishing the season 18th in overall yards per attempt. In 2024, the Jaguars’ offensive line created just 3.8 yards per attempt for their running backs to work with.
If the Jaguars running backs ran as expected, the Jaguars would’ve finished 31st overall instead of 18th. Luckily for the county of Duval, Tank Bisgby wildly outperformed expectations, averaging +0.7 yards per attempt over the expectation.
Bigsby’s +124 yards over expectation ranked 12th in the NFL, despite ranking 28th in attempts among RBs. Bigsby’s incredible ability to gain yards after contact was a big reason as to why he outperformed expectations, averaging 4.0 yards before contact per attempt (4th among RBs).
Unfortunately, his inability to make an impact on third down limited his effectiveness last season.
Travis Etienne, comparatively, didn’t fare so well. Etienne actually underperformed expectations, rushing for -0.3 yards per attempt above the expectation.
In 2024, Etienne was a detriment to the Jaguars’ offense as a rusher, according to NextGenStats. Sadly, the numbers didn’t look any better for Etienne the season prior either as he also averaged -0.3 yards per attempt above the expectation.
If Etienne figures to hold a prominent role in the Jaguars’ offense, he simply has to play better going forward. For more context, in 2022 Etienne was among the league’s best, averaging +1.1 yards per attempt over expected. In fact, Etienne’s +234 yards over expected ranked second behind only Nick Chubb.
That’s far more the standard for Travis Etienne. The Jaguars made several moves across the interior offensive line and at running back in hopes of remedying what has been an ugly run-game the last two seasons.
Liam Coen made miracles happen in just one season in Tampa Bay; the Jaguars are hoping he can duplicate that instant success in Jacksonville this season
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