JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — “The game is won in the trenches” is an often used phrase in the world of football to symbolize just how important offensive and defensive line play is to winning, but is it hyperbole? Well, let’s take a look at the offensive line half of the equation.
How much does Offensive Line play really matter to winning?
In order to provide a solid baseline, the last three years were compiled, categorized into ‘Win %’, ‘Pressure Rate Allowed’, and average ‘Time to Pressure’ from the NFL’s NextGenStats.
Three years, 32 teams worth of data to evaluate.
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‘Pressure Rate Allowed’ is often the stat seen most often to gauge offensive line play, however, teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins can artificially inflate or rather deflate their pressure rates with quick times to throw. Thus, average ‘Time to Pressure’ was also used to evaluate the importance of offensive line play.
The Jaguars, for instance, ranked 42nd, 17th, and 10th in ‘Pressure Rate Allowed. Hey, that’s not too bad at all. Well it doesn’t quite tell the whole story. This is why a single data point shouldn’t be used to evaluate a player or team.
While they did not allow pressure as frequently, the team saw an average ‘Time to Pressure’ ranking of 86th, 87th, and 65th among the 96 qualifiers. The Jaguars’ offensive system didn’t allow for much pressure and it made the offensive line look statistically better than it really was.
Hilariously, no team with as good of a ‘Pressure Rate Allowed’ performed as badly as the 2024 Jaguars.
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To provide a baseline, the average ‘Time to Pressure’ was 2.68 seconds, while the average ‘Pressure Rate Allowed’ was 34.4%.
So what does the data say?
Offensive line matters, quit a bit. Shocking statement, I know. In 2024, the top eight teams that gave their quarterback the most time to throw all made the playoffs, in addition to 10 of the Top-12. Conversely, only two teams ranking in the bottom 12 ended up making the postseason.
The previous seasons didn’t look all too different either. Seven of the Top-10 in average ‘Time to Pressure’ in 2023 ended up making the playoffs. Across the three seasons worth of data and 96 teams, 20 of 28 teams averaging 2.75 seconds or more ended up having winning records.
Those 28 teams that averaged at least 2.75 seconds or more also saw a win rate of 0.61, statistically comparable to about 10.5 wins. If a team can provide those 2.75 seconds on average, they put themselves in really good shape to both win and make the playoffs.
‘Pressure Rate Allowed’ provided similar results, though oftentimes the two statistics don’t align team by team as stated earlier with the Jaguars. The data illustrates that it’s just about impossible to make the playoffs at a ‘Pressure Rate Allowed’ of 38% or more. Of the 20 teams that did so, just four ended up having winning records and two made the playoffs.
When analyzing what number teams want to be under, 33% and under gives you a really good shot to be successful. A third of teams in the study managed this feat. Of those 32 teams, 21 ended up with records above 0.500.
The average win percentage of teams in the top half of ‘Pressure Rate Allowed’ was 0.57, compared to that of just 0.44 in the bottom half. That’s a whole 2.5 win difference in success.
The average ‘Pressure Rate Allowed’ of teams with double-digit wins came out to an average of 32.9%.
This data shouldn’t really be all that surprising. Nonetheless, it’s advantageous to crunch the numbers and see just how important it really is. Some quarterbacks can overcome poor offensive lines (Joe Burrow); it makes it substantially harder to do so year in and year out.
If you can give your quarterback 2.75 seconds to throw or allow pressure on 33% or dropbacks or less, you put yourself in an excellent position to finish the season with a winning record and might even find yourselves in the playoffs
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