Jacksonville, Fla. — The Jaguars have historically been a team that has gone hard in the paint after players they coveted in Free Agency. Jimmy Smith, Calais Campbell, and Paul Posluszny are all Jaguars’ greats who have found their way to Jacksonville via Free Agency.
While the Jaguars have had great success at times in Free Agency, they’ve also been burned by their fair share of players, including Julius Thomas, Jared Odrick, and Nick Foles.
That begs the question, how important is Free Agent spending?
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Read: ‘Value picks’: Jaguars announce new additions to team during Free Agency
Well, it’s simultaneously incredibly important and extremely overrated.
For this study, I collected how much total money each team has spent on free agents in the last five seasons and the last decade’s top yearly spenders.
Extensions given to their own players were not accounted for. Out of the 32 NFL teams, the Jaguars ranked 2nd, spending $716.7 million dollars over the last five seasons.
The top five included: the Carolina Panthers ($736.9), the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Las Vegas Raiders ($649.8), the Atlanta Falcons ($647.3), and the Miami Dolphins ($636.0).
How much each team had spent in Free Agency was then compared to each team’s win-loss record since 2020. Of the NFL’s top-10 spending teams over the last half-decade, just two have winning records over that time (Miami and Cincinnati).
When focusing our attention to the teams who have spent the least amount, 11 of the bottom 13 teams found themselves with winning records. The other two finished just short as the Colts (0.494%) and Cardinals (0.417%) both posted win rates over 40%.
This doesn’t paint the whole picture, however. Aside from the 2016 Jaguars, each of the NFL’s biggest yearly spenders from the last decade have increased their win total by at least three wins the following season.
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Some free agent classes impacted their teams greatly. The 2015 Jets, 2017 Jaguars, 2018 Bears, 2020 Dolphins, and 2022 Jaguars all saw at least five win differences after leading the league in spending that offseason.
The success was only fleeting, though, as many of those same teams’ records fell once again the season after. Of the NFL’s biggest yearly spenders of the last decade, just four have gone on to make the playoffs that same season. The Jaguars account for two of those four in 2017 and 2022.
In fact, the Jaguars have led the NFL in Free Agency spending three times over the last decade, most of any team. Sadly, it hasn’t amounted to much in the wins column. While the players may shine independently and could even bring immediate success, it’s been proven not to last.
The Jaguars’ 30th ranked 0.310% win percentage since 2020 is indicative enough of that. It’s a large reason as to why Jaguars’ GM James Gladstone has preached just how important the NFL Draft is. His mindset is that Free Agency is supplemental and not the way to build a roster.
“We’ll be a build through the draft-oriented team,” said Gladstone. “We’ll still supplement through free agency and both will be a part of what brings this roster to life. But with the idea that we have 20 draft selections at our disposal over the next two years, I think fans can expect that’s where we’ll put a large piece of our energy and expect to see a lot of our success in the future come from.”
The Jaguars might not be the biggest spenders this offseason as they focus on adding high-floor players and depth pieces, they still can do a lot with less this offseason. Look to the 2024 Washington Commanders as a guide.
This method has had proven success over the course of history. If you can find your franchise quarterback, which the Jaguars have done, the rest usually sorts itself out. It’s about building around them.
The Jaguars saw the impact of last season’s rookie class as Brian Thomas Jr, Jarrian Jones, and Cam Little all became instant starters and difference makers for this franchise. The next two years, the Jaguars have plenty of ammo to continue to build this team the right way.
Read: ‘Ten unforgettable seasons’: Jacksonville Jaguars center Mitch Morse announces retirement from NFL
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