Buresh Blog: NOAA Winter Outlook... La Nina Update... Avg. Date of First Snow

Jacksonville, FL — “Talking the Tropics With Mike” - updated every day through the hurricane season with “only” one month left(!).

NOAA has issued their winter outlook. The forecast is strongly predicated on the continuing La Nina so cold & snowy across the north, mild & dry across the south. A 3rd year in a row La Nina is rare + I feel the ENSO patterns are less reliable/predictable prior to the warm oceans of this era, so I’m not sure this winter will follow a typical La Nina pattern but time will tell. In any case... the Dec./Jan./Feb. outlook for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. is above avg. temps. & below avg. precip.

As for the La Nina, it’s still going strong. Note the blue below near & south of the equator across the Pacific:

Forecast models show the La Nina slowly abating late in the ‘23 spring into the following summer (forecast models have a notoriously difficult with long range ENSO predictions):

As we head through the heart of autumn with winter fast approaching, the map below shows the average date of the first snowfall across the Lower 48:

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